U. S. Weight Loss Market 2008 Status Report

 

January 2008

 

 

Marketdata Enterprises, Inc.

2807 W. Busch Blvd., Suite 110

Tampa, FL 33618  (813-931-3900)  

 

 

This report has been independently prepared by utilizing a comprehensive variety of “primary” and “secondary” information sources and techniques, including: in-depth telephone interviews, analyses of: competitor literature and websites, government agency and other data, custom searches of business databases and the Internet, combined with original Marketdata compilations, analyses, and forecasts.

 

This “off-the-shelf” report is equally applicable to: owners, managers, franchisors of weight loss companies, diet food and products manufacturers, pharmaceutical firms, physicians, hospitals, corporate wellness program directors, health clubs, health promotion information publishers, securities analysts at brokerage firms, banks, industry consultants, industry trade groups, infomercial producers, advertising agencies, government healthcare agencies, venture capitalists and merger and acquisition candidates.

 

 

Disclaimer:  This study does not constitute medical, managerial, legal, strategic planning or accounting advice, nor should it serve as a corporate policy guide or endorsement of specific companies, products, or services. Every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but Marketdata assumes no responsibility for losses or damages resulting from reliance on this material alone.

 

 

© Copyright January 2008, Marketdata Enterprises, Inc. Reproduction or distribution in whole or in part, written or electronic, by any means, without prior written permission of the copyright owner is strictly prohibited.  Violators will be fully prosecuted under US copyright laws.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U. S. Weight Loss Market 2008 Status Report

 

January 2008

 

Table of Contents

                                             

Page

 

Summary: Market Size, Market Segments, 2008 Forecasts              1-2

 

Marketdata projections for total market growth in 2007-2008, major

  drivers of growth to 2010

Table: Total weight loss mkt. and 10 sub-segments: $ value 2004,

           2005, 2006, 2007, 2008F

 

 

 

Recent & Emerging Market Trends                                                   3-9

 

9 market developments and trends identified by Marketdata - discussion

 

Calorie Control Council Predicts Top 5 Trends in Dieting and Weight Loss in 2008:

   Moderate Changes Are “In” For 2008

Advertising & Marketing Trends: Celebrities Abound

 

Weight Loss “Challenges” Are On (by People magazine, Oprah Winfrey, 50 million

   lb. challenge, Live Healthy America, etc.)

 

3rd Quarter and 9-Month 2007 Public Weight Loss Company Performance –

   The Alli Effect?

 

Small to Mid-Sized Commercial & Medical Chains Growing Faster

(Healthy Inspirations, Liberty Fitness, Center for Medical Weight Loss)

 

Brick & Mortar Centers & Franchising Making a Comeback?

 

 

Dieter Demographics                                                                         10

 

Dieting A Constant Concern Among Consumers: major findings of Calorie

   Control Council survey released in August 2007

 

Commercial Programs Status Report                                            11-26

 

Summary & Forecast

 

Estimated 2007 and forecasted 2008 revenues for the 8 main competitors.

 

The Pure Weight Loss/LA Weight Loss’s debacle: Confusion and anger among

   consumers but $300+ million opportunity for competing chains, discussion

   of closure of 400 Pure Weight Loss Centers

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Diet Companies – 2006 and 2007  9-Month Performance                     Page

 

Discussion of 3rd qtr. 2007 performance, revenues/operating data, full-year 2007  

   guidance/projected revenues, significant developments, new programs/services

 

-         Medifast

-         eDiets

-         Weight Watchers

-         NutriSystem

 

Meal Replacements and OTC Diet Pills: Status Report                  27-30

 

2008 Forecasts

 

OTC diet pills sales for the year ended Nov. 4, 2007, by Chain Drug Review: total

Mass market, supermarket/drug store channels

 

Historical sales trends

 

2007 Diet pills sales, by brand

 

Discussion of retail vs. other sales channels

 

Effect on 2007 growth rate from entry of Glaxo’s Alli to the market

 

Diet Foods/Dinner Entrees Market                                               31-32

 

Discussion of food industry analyst opinions about new frozen healthy/diet product 

   innovations (Healthy Choice Care Steamers, Lean Cuisine Paninis, Flatbread

   Melts), market dollar value growth low due to intense price competition.

 

2008 Forecasts

 

Health Clubs Industry                                                                         33

 

Consumer Reports ratings of large chains

 

Trend toward combining exercise facilities and weight loss plans, (examples:

   Healthy Inspirations, Liberty Fitness, Slim & Tone centers)

 

2008 Forecasts

 

Diet Books & Exercise Videos Market                                                34

 

2008 Forecasts, list of recent bestsellers, major role of Rodale Press

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Medical Programs Status Report                                                  35-44

 

Diet Drugs Market

 

Alli OTC diet pill, performance in 2007, obstacles to becoming a blockbuster

 

New experimental drug by Merck – Taranabant, status of research trials

 

2008 Forecasts for diet drugs market

 

Hospital/Clinic/MD Programs

 

2008 Forecasts

 

In-depth company profiles for these medical weight loss chains (address, how 

   program works, costs, no. of centers/franchises operating):

 

-         Smart For Life

-         Medi-WeightLoss Clinics

-         Center For Medical Weight Loss

-         Dr. Bernstein Health & Diet Clinics

 

Bariatric (Weight Loss) Surgery

 

Discussion of increasing importance of bariatric surgery as a preventive measure to  

   control future health, results of new research study (effect on developing 

   diabetes)

 

Table: Number of bariatric surgeries: 1992-2008 F

Table: $ value of bariatric surgery market: 1992 – 2008 F

 

 

The Online Dieting Market: Diet Websites                                    45-60

 

Discussion of nature of the market, market size estimates

 

 - eDiets.com: 2007 revenues/financials, subscribers, strategies

 

-  WeightWatchers.com: 2007 revenues/financials, subscribers, strategies

 

Diet Website Traffic: Alexa traffic rank of the major diet websites (3-month avg.)

 

Table: Alexa traffic 3-month rank for approx. 40 top diet websites (7/2007,

              10/2007, 1/2008),

 

Table: Number of daily visitors to the major diet websites – January 2008

 

Discussion of Sparkpeople.com, free website/significant competitor

             

GlaxoSmithKline’s Weight Loss Website for Alli diet pill: QuestionEverything.com

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                    Page

 

Online Dieter Characteristics: As of 4th Quarter 2007                       

(vs. 4th qtr. 2006 and 3rd qtr. 2007)                                                                      53

 

(Based on daily visitors taking online survey at BestDietForMe.com)

 

Preferences & Characteristics of Online Dieters (tables and commentary) by:

 

-         gender

-         age

-         BMI

-         Starting weights

-         Medical conditions present

-         Weight loss budget

-         Preferred location of weight loss program

-         Interest in diet food home delivery

-         Counseling format preferred

-         Type food plan desired

-         Previous types of weight loss methods/plans used